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Monday 19 May 2014

India to emerge from Stagflation over the next few years: Morgan Stanley

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/india-to-emerge-from-stagflation-over-next-few-quarters-morgan-stanley/articleshow/35342510.cms

The election results could be an "inflexion point" for India's story and the country's GDP is likely to accelerate to 6.8 per cent over the next two years, a Morgan Stanley report says.

Inflation, on other hand, is expected to head towards 6 per cent, it added.

"We now feel more confident that India will emerge from the stagflation type of environment over the next few quarters," Morgan Stanley said.

"The GDP growth is to accelerate by 210 bps over the next 8 quarters to 6.8 per cent. Inflation will finally head towards RBI's comfort zone of 6% over the next two years," it said in a research note. 

"The election outcome has only increased our confidence in our forecast that India is on course to achieve an average real GDP growth of 6.75 per cent over the next 10 years, taking its nominal GDP from $1.9 trillion to $5 trillion," Morgan Stanley said. 

On equity markets, the report said that given the mood of the market an "overshoot" is possible. Morgan Stanley's Index target is 26,300 for June, 2015 compared to its previous target of 21,280. 


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